关键词: 农业增长, 农村贫困, VAR模型, 门槛面板回归

Abstract: On the basis of the theoretical analysis of the influence factors of agricultural growth on the rural poverty, this paper empirically analyses the effect of China′s agricultural growth on the rural poverty reduction based on the dynamic econometric method of VAR model and threshold regression model. The co integration technique and VAR model were used to study the long-term effects of agricultural growth on the rural poverty, showing that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between agricultural growth and rural poverty, but it takes a long time to effectively play its poverty reduction effect; studying the impact of farmers′ income on rural poverty reduction by taking agricultural growth as the threshold variable of farmers income shows that agricultural growth has a significant effect on rural poverty.

Key words: agricultural growth, rural poverty, VAR model, threshold panel regression