商业研究

商业研究

• 三农经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国与丝绸之路经济带国家农产品贸易影响因素及潜力研究

张彤璞1,2，韩 洋2   

  1. 1.陕西师范大学 西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院，西安 710062； 2.陕西科技大学 经济与管理学院，西安 710021
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-11 出版日期:2017-04-18
  • 作者简介:张彤璞（1978-），女，陕西宝鸡人，陕西科技大学经济与管理学院讲师，陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院博士研究生，研究方向：农业经济、国际经济与贸易；韩洋（1993-），女，山西长治人，陕西科技大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向：农业经济、国际经济与贸易。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目，项目编号：14BJY031。

Research on Influence Factors and Potential of Agricultural Produce Trade between China and Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt

ZHANG Tong-pu1,2, HAN Yang2   

  1. 1.Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and the Economic and Social Development, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710062,China; 2.School of Economics and Management, Shaanxi University of Technology, Xi′an 710021, China
  • Received:2016-11-11 Online:2017-04-18

摘要： 基于2005-2014年中国与“丝绸之路经济带”国家农产品贸易的面板数据，运用引力模型，从GDP、人口、地理距离、人均GDP差额、制度安排等方面对中国与其贸易流量和潜力进行分析、预测。中国与丝绸之路经济带沿线39个国家农产品贸易量呈持续增长的态势，贸易逆差也呈扩大趋势，双方农产品存在极大的互补性；经济总量、人口规模与双边的贸易量成正比，而国家间距离、人均GDP差距则对贸易有负向的影响；区域经济一体化组织在不同程度上促进了农产品贸易的发展，其中，SCO（上海合作组织）的促进作用明显，WTO、APEC的影响作用较小；中国与大多沿线国家贸易潜力巨大，有待进一步开发。

关键词: 丝绸之路经济带, 农产品贸易, 引力模型, 贸易潜力

Abstract: Based on 2005-2014 panel data of agricultural produce trade between China and “Silk Road Economic Belt” countries, the paper uses the gravity model to analyze and forecast China′s trade flow and potential to them from GDP, population, geographical distance, per capita GDP difference, institutional arrangements and other aspects. Agricultural produce trade volume between China and 39 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt showed a sustained growth trend, and trade deficit also showed an increasing trend, showing a great complementarity in agricultural produce; the total amount of economy and population scale are directly proportional to the volume of bilateral trade, while the distance between countries and the per capita GDP gap have a negative impact on trade; Regional Economic Integration Organization has promoted the development of agricultural produce trade to some extent, among them, the promotion effect of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) is obvious, WTO and APEC are less; China′s trade potential with most of the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is big, pending further development.

Key words: Silk Road Economic Belt, agricultural produce trade, gravity model, trade potential