商业研究

商业研究

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基于福利损失函数的人民币汇率制度选择

孙岩   

  1. 中国政法大学 博士后流动站，北京 100088
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-07 出版日期:2017-06-16
  • 作者简介:孙岩（1982-），女，黑龙江牡丹江人，中国政法大学博士后流动站在站博士后，经济学博士，研究方向：世界经济与国际金融、经济法。

RMB Exchange Rate Regime Choices based on Welfare Loss Function

SUN Yan   

  1. Postdoctoral Research Station, China University of Political Science and Law, Beijing 100088,China
  • Received:2017-03-07 Online:2017-06-16

摘要： 汇率制度安排对国内经济发展和国际间贸易收支具有重要影响作用。本文从社会福利效应的角度出发，基于损失函数构建汇率制度选择模型，根据不同的政策目标对我国中短期的汇率制度选择进行判定。研究发现：当政策目标为产出稳定时，浮动汇率制度与钉住美元汇率制度相比较，钉住汇率制度可信并且可以持续的情况下，钉住美元的汇率制度可以减少国内产出的波动，与单一钉住美元相比，钉住货币篮子的汇率制度可以更大程度地减少国内产出的波动；当政策目标为汇率稳定时，最优的汇率制度是单一钉住美元汇率制度。结合我国目前贸易和金融市场的状况，适合维持参考一篮子货币的汇率制度。

关键词: 人民币汇率制度, 政策目标, 福利, 损失函数

Abstract: Exchange rate regime arrangement is crucial for a country′s domestic economic development and international trade income and expenses. From the perspective of social welfare effect, this paper focuses on the middle- short term RMB exchange rate regime choices according to different policy goals by building the exchange rate regime selection models which are based on loss function. The results show that, compared with floating exchange rate regime, Dollar-pegged exchange rate regime can reduce domestic output fluctuation when the policy goal is credible and sustainable, and compared with single Dollar-pegged exchange rate regime, pegged currency basket exchange rate regime can reduce the volatility of domestic output much more;when the policy goal is exchange rate stability, single Dollar-pegged exchange rate regime is the best exchange rate regime.Based on the condition of our country′s trade system and financial market, it is appropriate to maintain the pegged currency basket exchange rate regime.

Key words: exchange rate regime of RMB, policy goal, welfare, loss function