商业研究

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基于ESDA-GWR方法的广东省收入差距空间演化及影响因素分析

吴昊,李美琦   

  1. 吉林大学 东北亚研究院,长春 130012
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-16 出版日期:2017-06-16
  • 作者简介:吴昊(1969-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,吉林大学东北亚研究院教授,博士生导师,研究方向:区域理论与政策;李美琦(1991-),女,内蒙古赤峰人,吉林大学东北亚研究院博士研究生,研究方向:区域开发规划。

An Analysis of Spatial Evolution of Income Distribution and Influence Factors in Guangdong Province based on ESDA-GWR

WU Hao,LI Mei-qi   

  1. Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University, Changchun 130012,China
  • Received:2016-12-16 Online:2017-06-16

摘要: 在考虑空间异质性和缩小研究区域细化研究尺度的基础上,本文以广东省21个地市为研究单元,运用ESDA方法证明1980-2015年广东省各地收入水平存在显著空间自相关性:从局部自相关角度看,广东省各地市收入水平仍然存在较大差距,高-高收入集群与低-低收入集群距离较远,多年来变化不大;高收入群对低收入群有一定影响,对低收入集群没有明显影响。通过地理加权回归得出结论,全球化、市场化、区位、地方分权是导致广东收入不平等的主要原因。在单一变量GWR中,1995-2015年市场化和地方分权对广东省收入水平作用效果呈“倒U型”,城镇化作用加剧了地区收入差距;在多变量GWR中,市场化和地方分权的“倒U型”变化趋势有所弱化,城镇化水平却表现出了“U型”变化趋势,且影响区域收入水平的效果被强化。

关键词: 广东, 收入差距, 探索性空间数据分析, 地理加权回归, 影响因素

Abstract: On the basis of considering spatial heterogeneity and narrowing the scale of research areas, and taking the 21 cities of Guangdong province as research unit, the paper utilizes the method of ESDA to prove the existence of significant spatial correlation of income level in Guangdong province from 1980 to 2015: from the perspective of local autocorrelation, there is still a large gap between cities of Guangdong province, the high-high income cluster is far away from the low-low income cluster, and the situation has changed little over the years; high income group has a certain effect on low-income group, but has no obvious influence on low-income cluster. Through the geographical weighted regression, the paper concludes that globalization, marketization location and decentralization are the main reasons for income inequality in Guangdong. In a single variable GWR, marketization and decentralization are inverted U-shaped curve rolling in the income level, and urbanization intensifies regional income gap; in the multivariate GWR,the inverted U-shaped trend of marketization and decentralization is weaken, while urbanization shows U-shaped curve and its effect on regional income levels is strengthened.

Key words: Guangdong, income distribution, ESDA, GWR, influence factor