商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国零售业全要素生产率演进及分解

李子文，刘向东   

  1. 中国人民大学 商学院，北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-16 出版日期:2017-07-20
  • 作者简介:李子文（1991-），男，山西忻州人，中国人民大学商学院博士研究生，研究方向：贸易流通、产业组织、零售与分销理论；刘向东（1969-），男，江苏南通人，中国人民大学商学院教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：贸易经济学、流通经济学、零售与分销理论。

The Evolution and Decomposition of Chinese Retailing Total Factor Productivity

LI Zi-wen, LIU Xiang-dong   

  1. School of Business, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872,China
  • Received:2017-01-16 Online:2017-07-20

摘要： 分析我国零售业的增长模式及驱动因素的变化过程，进一步甄别其全要素生产率变化的原因，有助于深化对我国零售业发展历史及现状的认识。零售业在我国社会化商品流通乃至整个经济运行的过程中一直发挥着重要作用。本文利用增长核算法和随机前沿分析方法，对1998年以来我国零售业全要素生产率的演进过程进行系统的测度和分解。实证结果显示，我国零售业发展的两个重要时间节点是2004年外资进入和2008年金融危机；从行业层面来看，近年来我国零售业全要素生产率增长停滞的主要原因是无货铺零售业、综合零售业、家电产品零售业以及服装日用品零售业的低速发展；从生产率分解的角度来看，全要素生产率变化的核心因素是技术进步和技术效率的变化。此外，本文还发现我国零售业具有典型的规模报酬不变的特征，同时资源扭曲配置的现象长期存在。

关键词: 零售业, 全要素生产率, 增长核算法, 随机前沿分析

Abstract: It is helpful to deepen the understanding of the history and current situation of China′s retail industry by analyzing the growth model and the driving factors of retail industry, and further screening the reasons for the change of total factor productivity. This paper uses growth accounting method and stochastic frontier analysis to systematically measure and decompose the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese retailing since 1998. The empirical results show that there are two important time nodes for retailing development: one is the entry of foreign capital in 2004 and the other is the financial crisis in 2008;on the industry level, the reasons why TFP of retailing stagnates in recent years are the low-rate development of No-shop Retail, integrated retailing, household electric appliances retailing and garments retailing; from the perspective of TFP decomposition, the change of TFP is mainly caused by technology progress and technical efficiency improvement. Besides, this paper shows that Chinese retailing is a typically “Constant Returns to Scale” industry, and there is a misallocation of retail resources in the long term.

Key words: retailing, Total Factor Productivity, growth accounting, Stochastic Frontier Analysis