商业研究

商业研究

• 产业经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

临储政策取消下玉米种植结构调整的影响因素与收入效应 ——基于黑龙江省镰刀弯地区调查数据的分析

崔宁波，张正岩   

  1. （东北农业大学 经济管理学院，哈尔滨 150030）
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-29 出版日期:2017-11-16
  • 作者简介:崔宁波（1980-），女，黑龙江依安人，东北农业大学经济管理学院教授，博士生导师，研究方向：农业经济理论与政策；张正岩（1991-），男，山东潍坊人，东北农业大学经济管理学院研究生，研究方向：农业经济理论与政策。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然基金青年基金项目，项目编号：71303038；国家自然基金青年基金项目，项目编号：71503036；黑龙江省普通本科高校青年创新人才培养计划项目，项目编号：UNPYSCT；东北农业大学“学术骨干”项目资助；黑龙江省社科基金项目，项目编号：17JYB080。

Influence Factors and Income Effects of the Adjustment of Corn Planting Structure under the Abolition of Temporary Storage Policy:An Analysis based on the Survey Data of Sickle Bend Area in Heilongjiang Province

CUI Ning-bo，ZHANG Zheng-yan   

  1. (College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030，China)
  • Received:2017-06-29 Online:2017-11-16

摘要： 本文运用DID模型对镰刀弯地区农户参与和未参与玉米种植结构调整与其家庭收入变化情况进行了定量评估，同时应用二元Logistic模型对农户参与结构调整的意愿展开进一步研究。结果表明：农户参与玉米种植结构调整减少了由玉米价格下行所造成的农业收入损失，表现为对农业收入的正向作用。玉米种植结构调整对农户的务工收入增加效果不显著，但整体上实施种植结构调整对农户家庭总收入能产生积极的影响；对于非调整户而言，调减玉米面积虽也减少了农业收入损失，但这种直接减少玉米耕地而不进行结构调整的行为并不利于家庭总收入的改善。在农户个人及家庭特征因素中，文化程度、是否了解补贴政策与其结构调整意愿间呈显著正相关；在农户生产特征因素中，玉米种植面积、参加农技培训次数对农户种植结构调整意愿影响显著，距最近城镇距离、交通运输状况、邻家种植行为等也是影响农户结构调整意愿的重要因素。目前农业种植结构调整的收入效应仅体现在一定程度的玉米价格损失的减少上是不够的，也是难以持续的，须真实地体现在农民收入的增长上。因此，政府需在农业补贴、服务、投资及生产方式改造等方面加大政策投入。

关键词: 玉米, 结构调整, 农户收入, 意愿

Abstract: The paper uses DID model to quantitatively evaluate the household income change of farmers that participate in the adjustment of corn planting structure or not in sickle bend area, and also uses the binary logistic model to further study the willingness of farmers to participate in structural adjustment. The results show that farmers′ participation in maize planting structural adjustment reduces the loss of agricultural income caused by the downward price of maize, which is manifested as a positive effect on agricultural income. The effect of maize planting structure adjustment on farmer′s income increase is not significant, but the overall implementation of planting structure adjustment has a positive impact on the total household income of farmers; for non-regulated households, reducing maize area can also reduce agricultural income losses, but this behavior directly reducing maize farmland without structural adjustment is not conducive to the improvement of household income. There is a significant positive correlation between the level of education, whether to understand the subsidy policy and the willingness to adjust; among the characteristic factors of farmer production, the area of corn planting and the number of agricultural training are significant to planting structure, and the distance from the nearest town, the transportation situation, neighborhood planting behavior are also important factors affecting the willingness of farmers to adjust the structure. At present, it′s not enough and sustainable that income effect of agricultural planting structure adjustment is only reflected on the reduction of corn price loss to a certain extent. It must be truly reflected in the growth of peasants′ income. Therefore, government needs to increase its investment in agricultural subsidies, services, investment and transformation of production methods.

Key words: maize, structural adjustment, farmers′ income, willingness