商业研究

商业研究

• 民生经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国CPI与居民物价感受的悖离：测度、原因与对策

张军涛，吴俣   

  1. （东北财经大学 公共管理学院，辽宁 大连 116025）
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-26 出版日期:2017-11-16
  • 作者简介:张军涛（1963-），男，石家庄人，东北财经大学公共管理学院教授，博士生导师，研究方向：城市与区域可持续发展；吴俣（1990-），男，辽宁锦州人，东北财经大学公共管理学院博士研究生，研究方向：城市与区域可持续发展。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“新型城镇化的空间效应与区域政策工具组合创新”，项目编号：41571121。

The Deviation of CPI and Residents′ Price Perception in China:Quantitative Measure, Factor Analysis and Countermeasures

ZHANG Jun-tao，WU Yu   

  1. (School of Public Administration, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)
  • Received:2017-06-26 Online:2017-11-16

摘要： 2000年以来中国的货币政策根据经济运行状况不断调整，保持了物价的基本稳定，但居民对物价的感受和CPI的实际涨幅出现明显差异。基于中国人民银行在全国340个城市的问卷调查结果，本文运用ICPS、CPI和M2Q的时间序列数据，采用VAR脉冲分析等方法对CPI与居民物价感受之间的关系进行实证分析。研究显示，中国的CPI与居民的物价感受存在一定程度的悖离，与货币供应序列的变动相比，这一悖离是显著的。研究认为，由于CPI自身的局限性及物价管制等因素，在当前中国CPI并非测量通货膨胀的最佳指标，其可能弱化对宏观经济的预警；无论是对当前CPI体系的调整或是构建有效测量通货膨胀的先行指标体系，都应该强调居民的物价感受因素。

关键词: 物价感受, 物价指数, ICPS, 通货膨胀

Abstract: Since 2000, China′s monetary policy has been constantly adjusted according to the economic situation, maintaining the basic stability of prices, but residents′ price perception is obviously different from the actual increase of CPI. Based on the questionnaire survey results of the People′s Bank of China in 340 cities nationwide and ICPS, CPI, M2Q time series data, this study empirically investigates the relationship between CPI and the residents′ price perception by using VAR impulse analysis method and others. The research shows that there is a certain degree of deviation between CPI and the residents′ price perception in China, and compared with the changes of the money supply sequences, the deviation is significant. Due to the limitations of CPI itself and price control, CPI is not the best indicator to measure inflation in China, which may weaken the early-warning of macro-economy; whether it is the adjustment of the current CPI system or the establishment of an effective indicator system to measure inflation, the residents′ price perception factor should be emphasized.

Key words: price perception, price index, ICPS;inflation