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地方债务、土地财政与经济增长 ——基于联立方程模型的实证分析

武靖州   

  1. (中国财政科学研究院,北京 100142)
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-14 出版日期:2018-08-10
  • 作者简介:武靖州(1980-),男,河南濮阳人,中国财政科学研究院副研究员,经济学博士,研究方向:宏观经济、财政政策、预算管理。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金研究专项课题“国家治理现代化视角下的财税体制改革研究”,项目编号:17VZL011。

Local Government Debt, Land Finance and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis based on Simultaneous Equation Model

WU Jing-zhou   

  1. (Institute of China Finance Science,Beijing 100142,China)
  • Received:2018-03-14 Online:2018-08-10

摘要: 我国经济进入新常态后经济增长由高速转为中高速,并伴随着地方政府债务的快速扩张。在分析地方政府债务、土地财政和经济增长互动关系的基础上,本文将这三者纳入同一框架下构建联立方程模型,对我国2012-2016年省级数据采用三阶段最小二乘法进行估计,在引入土地财政因素后,发现地方债务驱动的地方经济增长不可持续,土地财政与地方债务之间存在正向的相互影响和利益耦合,城市化水平的提升和第三产业的发展有助于摆脱经济发展对地方债务和土地财政依赖。为此,应充分认识到经济持续发展不应建立在债务扩张的基础之上,持续关注由地方财政缺口和债务增长带来的金融风险,并适时调整土地供给政策。

关键词: 地方债务, 土地财政, 经济增长, 联立方程模型

Abstract: Under the background that the economy has entered the New Normal, Chinese economic growth has changed from high-speed to medium-high speed, accompanied by the rapid expansion of local government debt. Based on the analysis of the interactive relationship among local government debt, land finance and economic growth, this paper integrates them into the same framework to build a simultaneous equation model. The paper reached a corresponding conclusion by using the three-stage least-squares method to estimate 2012-2016 provincial data in China: local economic growth driven by local government debt is unsustainable after the introduction of land finance, there is a positive interaction and interest coupling between land finance and local government debt, and raising the level of urbanization and developing the tertiary industry would help to get rid of the dependence of economic development on government debt and land finance. To this end, we should fully recognize that sustainable economic development should not be based on debt expansion. On the other hand, we should continue to focus on the financial risks brought about by the local fiscal gap and debt growth, and adjust land supply policies in a timely manner.

Key words: local government debt, land finance, economic growth, Simultaneous Equation Model