商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

地方政府干预住房市场的机理与路径 ——基于供给弹性的实证分析

吴梓境1，张波1，朱琳2   

  1. （北京大学 1.政府管理学院；2. 光华管理学院，北京 100871）
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-27 出版日期:2018-12-10
  • 作者简介:吴梓境(1984-)，男，辽宁阜新人，北京大学政府管理学院博士后，管理学博士，研究方向：城市与区域经济学；张波(1976-)，本文通讯作者，男，河北保定人，北京大学政府管理学院副教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：城市与区域经济学；朱琳(1990-)，女，天津人，北京大学光华管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向：企业经济。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金主任基金项目“京津冀城市成长管理与城镇布局优化政策研究”，项目编号：71441002。

The Mechanism and Path of Local Government′s Intervention into Real Estate： An Empirical Analysis based on Housing Supply Elasticity

WU Zi-jing1,ZHANG Bo1, ZHU Lin2   

  1. (1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 2. Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)
  • Received:2018-08-27 Online:2018-12-10

摘要： 住房供给弹性关系到房价形成机理与住房政策稳定性，是建立中国房地产长效调控机制的理论研究重点。政府行为是住房供给弹性的重要影响因素：地方政府运用控制土地出让量与管制用地类型等两个核心路径，通过土地要素对住房市场实施干预。本文通过选择土地供给弹性与招拍挂收入占土地总收入比重两个代理变量，运用34个大中城市2012-2016年季度数据进行实证检验，证实了地方政府的干预行为会降低住房供给弹性，导致供给调整出现粘滞效应，使得需求侧的调控政策失灵。因此应当通过调整政府绩效考核机制、完善地方财税体制、升级区域产业结构等方式改变地方政府在住房市场中的目标函数，会更有利于住房调控长效机制的建立。

关键词: 住房供给弹性, 地方政府, 房地产调控

Abstract: The housing supply elasticity is related to the formation mechanism of housing prices and the stability of housing policy. It is the theoretical research focus to establish a long-term regulation mechanism of real estate in China.Studies have shown that government behavior is an important factor affecting the elasticity of housing supply. Local governments intervene into the housing market through land, and have two core intervention paths: controlling the amount of land transfer and controlling the type of land use. This paper selected the land supply elasticity and the proportion of bidding, auctioning and listing revenues in the total land revenue as 2 proxy variables and used 2012-2016 quarterly data of 34 large and medium-sized cities to make empirical tests, to prove that local government interventions will reduce the housing supply elasticity and lead to viscosity effects in the supply adjustment, thus causing a failure of regulation policies on the demand side. Therefore, it is quite necessary to change the objective function of local governments in the housing market by adjusting the government performance appraisal mechanism, improving local fiscal and taxation system, and upgrading the regional industrial structure, so as to provide an institutional basis for the establishment of a long-term real estate regulation mechanism.

Key words: housing supply elasticity, local government, real estate regulation