商业研究

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不确定性规避、文化距离方向与双边直接投资

刘威,陈祺勋   

  1. (武汉大学 经济与管理学院,武汉〓430072)
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-24 出版日期:2019-02-15
  • 作者简介:刘威(1979-),男,湖北随州人,武汉大学经济与管理学院副教授,经济学博士,研究方向:国际投资;陈祺勋(1994-),男,南昌人,武汉大学经济与管理学院研究生,研究方向:国际投资。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目,项目编号:18YJA790055;教育部重大攻关项目,项目编号:18JZD034;中国外交部中欧关系“指南针计划”项目,项目编号:KT201807;武汉大学人文社会科学自主科研项目,项目编号:2018QN021。

Uncertainty Avoidance, Direction of Cultural Distance and Bilateral Direct Investment

LIU Wei,CHEN Qi-xun   

  1. (Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072,China )
  • Received:2018-10-24 Online:2019-02-15

摘要: 本文评估了文化距离对双边FDI的方向效应,发现这种方向效应主要来自地区间不确定性规避文化距离的作用。当投资方向为不确定规避能力比自身差的地区FDI时,不确定性规避文化距离对双边FDI产生显著负影响;当投资方向为不确定性规避能力强的地区FDI时,则产生显著正影响。同时这种方向效应在低不确定性规避国家FDI交往时表现的尤为敏感。中国作为低不确定性规避国家,在向不确定性规避能力比自身强的地区FDI时,应选择与其不确定性规避文化距离较大的地区;在向不确定性规避能力弱的地区FDI时,应选择该文化距离较小的地区。而中国在吸引不确定规避能力弱的地区FDI时,应选择不确定规避文化距离更大的地区;在吸引不确定规避能力强的地区FDI时,应选择不确定性规避偏好相似的地区。

关键词: 不确定性规避, 文化距离, 方向效应, 双边直接投资

Abstract: Through measuring whether the direction of cultural distance affects bilateral foreign direct investment, it is found that the direction of cultural distance matters when a host and a home country differ in uncertainty avoidance. More specifically, bilateral FDI activities are negatively related to the net difference in uncertainty avoidance between home and host countries. That is, when a home country′s uncertainty avoidance is greater than a host country, increasing the difference in uncertainty avoidance reduces FDI. When a home country′s uncertainty avoidance is lower than a host country, increasing difference in uncertainty avoidance encourages FDI. And the direction effect of cultural distance is more prominent among low uncertainty avoidance countries′ FDI activities. Therefore, the direction of cultural distance in uncertainty avoidance should be taken into consideration when China involves in FDI activities. On the one hand, as a home country, China should choose countries whose uncertainty avoidance scores are higher and cultural distances in uncertainty avoidance are greater to invest, and choose countries whose uncertainty avoidance scores are lower and cultural distances in uncertainty avoidance are less to invest. On the other hand, as a host country, China should attract countries whose uncertainty avoidance scores are less and cultural distances in uncertainty avoidance are greater to invest, and attract countries whose uncertainty avoidance scores are greater and cultural distances in uncertainty avoidance are less to invest in China.

Key words: uncertainty avoidance, cultural distance, directive effect, bilateral FDI