商业研究

商业研究

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全球价值链视角下的出口经济复杂度与经济增长 ——基于贸易增加值前向分解法的分析

王清晨1,郑乐凯2,3   

  1. （1.复旦大学 经济学院，上海〓200433；2.复旦大学 管理学院，上海〓200433； 3.上海黄金交易所 博士后工作站，上海〓200001）
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-12 出版日期:2019-02-15
  • 作者简介:王清晨（1990-），男，辽宁铁岭人，复旦大学经济学院博士研究生，研究方向：世界经济理论；郑乐凯（1989-），男，浙江温州人，复旦大学管理学院与上海黄金交易所博士后工作站联合培养博士后，研究方向：国际经济学。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目，项目编号：16ZDA043；国家自然科学基金面上项目，项目编号：71572048。

Export Economic Complexity and Economic Growth from the Perspective of Global Value Chain: An Analysis of Forward Decomposition Method based on Trade in Value-Added

WANG Qing-chen1, ZHENG Le-kai2,3   

  1. (1. School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433,China; 2. School of Management, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433,China; 3. Postdoctoral Workstation,Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai 200001,China)
  • Received:2018-10-12 Online:2019-02-15

摘要： 目前，制造企业产业链正逐渐从以制造为中心向以服务为中心转变。本文使用贸易增加值前向分解法，将出口品中的外国要素剔除后测算各国各产业的真实出口规模，并以此为基础构建糅合制造和服务产业的出口经济复杂度指数，利用跨国面板数据实证检验出口经济复杂度对经济增长值的影响。结果表明出口经济复杂度水平越高对经济增长的促进作用越明显，在加入其他控制变量的条件下该结论依然稳健。中国服务贸易发展相对滞后、对外贸易方式亟待升级，对外贸易模式应逐渐从过分追求贸易的“量”向“质”转变，提高服务贸易开放程度，增强服务出口能力，扩大服务贸易规模，优化服务贸易出口结构，促进服务贸易与货物贸易联动协调发展，提升本国出口产品的整体质量水平。

关键词: 全球价值链, 出口经济复杂度, 经济增长, 贸易增加值

Abstract: At present, the manufacturing industry chain is gradually shifting from manufacturing to service. The paper uses the forward decomposition method based on trade in value-added to exclude the foreign elements in the export products and then measure the real export scale of each industry in each country. Then the paper construct s export economy complexity index of the manufacturing and service industries based on this real scale, and uses the multinational panel data to empirically investigate the impact of export economic complexity on economic growth. The result shows that the higher the level of export economic complexity, the more obvious the promotion effect on economic growth. The conclusion is robust after controlling other variables. The development of China′s service trade is lagging behind, and the mode of foreign trade needs to be upgraded. When trading with others, China should gradually shift from pursuing the “quantity” to “quality”, improve the openness of service trade, enhance the service export capacity, expand the scale of service trade, and optimize the service trade export structure. The optimization of export structure will promote the coordinated development of both service and goods trade and eventually enhance the overall quality level of domestic export products.

Key words: global value chain, export economy complexity, economic growth, trade in value-added