人工智能技术会抑制制造业就业吗？
——理论推演与实证检验

商业研究

人工智能技术会抑制制造业就业吗？ ——理论推演与实证检验

蔡啸，黄旭美

（东北师范大学经济学院，长春 130117）

收稿日期:2019-03-01 出版日期:2019-06-16
作者简介:：蔡啸（1986-），男，长春人，东北师范大学经济学院讲师，经济学博士，研究方向：技术进步与就业；黄旭美（1994-），女，广西贵港人，东北师范大学经济学院研究生，研究方向：技术进步与就业。
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究项目，项目编号：19YJC790004；中国博士后科学基金项目，项目编号：2017M621182；东北师范大学哲学社会科学校内青年基金项目，项目编号：17SQ012。

Will the Artificial Intelligence Restrain Employment in Manufacturing?Theoretical

CAI Xiao, HUANG Xu-mei

（School of Economics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117,China）

Received:2019-03-01 Online:2019-06-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 制造业人工智能技术替代劳动的同时也提高了产出，劳动需求结构会随之发生变化，因而人工智能技术对制造业就业的作用方向存在不确定性。本文构建两部门任务模型，分析人工智能技术的生产率效应和对就业替代效应的影响机制，考察人工智能技术生产率增长幅度和产品替代弹性对两种效应的作用方向；利用我国28个省份2003-2016年面板数据，实证人工智能技术对劳动力产业结构的作用方向及强度，进一步利用面板门限回归模型考察不同人工智能技术生产率增长幅度上，对制造业就业非线性影响。理论模型说明，在多数情况下，人工智能技术会抑制制造业就业，其对制造业就业的替代将促进劳动力向服务业的流动；当人工智能技术存在较大突破导致制造业生产率有巨大提升时，产出增长对劳动力的需求效应会大于技术替代效应，劳动力回流入制造业。实证结果显示，我国人工智能技术的使用显著降低了制造业的劳动力占比，但其生产率增长会在一定程度上缓解这种抑制作用。面板门限回归结果显示，人工智能技术生产率增长幅度不足0.0282时，人工智能技术使用提升1%将减少制造业就业占比0.124%；反之，当人工智能技术生产率增长幅度超过门限值时，人工智能技术使用提升1%将增加制造业就业占比0.179%。研究结论的重要启示在于揭示了人工智能技术对制造业就业的挤出效应会随人工智能技术取得重大突破而发生反转，促进制造业劳动力回流的机理。

关键词: 人工智能技术, 制造业就业, 两部门任务模型, 面板门限回归

Abstract: Abstract：When artificial intelligence(AI) replaces labor in manufacturing industry, it also increases output and changes labor demand structure,and the structure of labor demand will change accordingly. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the role of AI technology in manufacturing employment. This paper constructs a two-part task model to describe how productivity effect and replacement effect of AI influence the employment in manufacturing and investigate the level that two effects are influencing by productivity growth and substitution elasticity of products. By using panel data from 28 provinces in China in 2003-2016, this paper tests the direction and level of AI′s effect on employment, furthermore, calculates the non-linear effects of AI on manufacturing employment on different level of productivity growth. The theoretical model points out that in most cases, AI′s replacement of labor in manufacturing will promote labor force flowing to service;when the breakthrough of AI technology leads to a huge increase in manufacturing productivity, the demand effect of output growth on labor force will be greater than that of technology substitution, and labor force will flow back into manufacturing industry.Empirical results show that the use of AI technology in China has significantly reduced the proportion of labor force in manufacturing industry, but its productivity growth will alleviate this inhibition to a certain extent. The panel threshold regression results show that when the productivity growth rate of AI technology is less than 0.0282, an increase of 1% in AI technology use will reduce the employment rate of manufacturing industry by 0.124%;on the contrary, when the productivity growth rate of AI technology exceeds the threshold, an increase of 1% in AI technology use will increase the employment rate of manufacturing industry by 0.179%. The important enlightenment of the research conclusion is to reveal the mechanism that the extrusion effect of AI technology on manufacturing employment will reverse with the significant breakthrough of AI technology, and promote the return of manufacturing labor force.

Key words: words：Artificial Intelligence, employment in manufacturing, Two-sector Task Model, Panel Threshold Regression

蔡啸，黄旭美. 人工智能技术会抑制制造业就业吗？ ——理论推演与实证检验 [J]. 商业研究.

CAI Xiao, HUANG Xu-mei. Will the Artificial Intelligence Restrain Employment in Manufacturing?Theoretical [J]. 商业研究.

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