商业信用：替代性融资，还是流动性危机的信号？

商业研究

商业信用：替代性融资，还是流动性危机的信号？

马亚明，张洁琼

（天津财经大学金融学院，天津 300222）

收稿日期:2018-12-18 出版日期:2019-06-16
作者简介:马亚明（1973-），男，湖北赤壁人，天津财经大学金融学院教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：资本市场与公司金融；张洁琼（1990-），女，河南洛阳人，天津财经大学金融学院博士研究生，研究方向：宏观经济与金融理论。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目“新常态下我国影子银行体系的风险溢出效应及其对货币政策的影响研究”，项目编号：15AJY021。

Trade Credit: Substitution Financing, or A Signal of Liquidity Crisis?

MA Ya-ming, ZHANG Jie-qiong

(School of Finance, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics，Tianjin 300222,China)

Received:2018-12-18 Online:2019-06-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 受经济增速下滑和结构性去杠杆政策的影响，银行信贷顺周期收缩导致企业对商业信用融资的依赖度上升。本文利用2006-2017年非金融上市公司数据，考察商业信用与银行信贷对于不同融资约束企业在不同经济周期下的关系演变，并以商业信用对企业破产风险的影响来检验商业信用增加的实际功效。实证结果发现：在经济下行周期，商业信用融资约束会随着银行信贷的收紧而收紧，商业信用对银行信贷的替代效应顺周期下降，市场整体流动性风险上升。非融资约束型企业会在经济下行周期减少商业信用的使用量，而融资约束型企业的商业信用的替代效应则不受经济环境的影响。但是，对于融资约束型企业来说，这一替代效应更多的是“虚假替代”，即企业并未获得有效的商业信用补充，而是企业财务状况恶化导致的商业信用被动增长，是信用风险上升的信号。

关键词: 商业信用, 银行信贷, 破产风险, 流动性风险

Abstract: Influenced by the decline of economic growth and structural de-leveraging policy, the pro-cyclical contraction of bank credit leads to the increase of enterprises′ dependence on commercial credit financing.Based on the data of non-financial listed companies from 2006 to 2017, this paper examines the evolution of the relationship between commercial credit and bank credit in different financial constraints under different economic cycles, and examines the actual effect of the increase of commercial credit on the bankruptcy risk of enterprises.The empirical results show that in the downturn period, the constraints of commercial credit financing will be tightened with the tightening of bank credit, the substitution effect of commercial credit on bank credit will decrease in a pro-cyclical manner, and the overall liquidity risk of the market will increase.Non-financing-constrained enterprises will reduce the use of commercial credit in the downturn cycle, while the substitution effect of commercial credit of financing-constrained enterprises is not affected by the economic environment. However, for financing-constrained enterprises, this substitution effect is more “false substitution”, that is, enterprises have not been effectively supplemented by commercial credit, but the passive growth of commercial credit caused by the deterioration of the financial situation of enterprises, which is a signal of rising credit risk.

Key words: trade credit, bank loan, risk of bankruptcy, liquidity risk

马亚明，张洁琼. 商业信用：替代性融资，还是流动性危机的信号？ [J]. 商业研究.

MA Ya-ming, ZHANG Jie-qiong. Trade Credit: Substitution Financing, or A Signal of Liquidity Crisis? [J]. 商业研究.

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