商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

土地财政和信贷扩张在房价上涨因素中孰轻孰重？

汪卢俊1，谢姗2，骆永民1   

  1. （1.南京财经大学 财政与税务学院，南京 210023；2.中国人民银行 南京分行，南京 210004）
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-19 出版日期:2019-06-16
  • 作者简介:汪卢俊（1985-），男，安徽安庆人，南京财经大学财政与税务学院讲师，经济学博士，研究方向：资产价格与财政金融政策、计量经济理论与应用；谢姗（1988-），女，湖南沁阳人，中国人民银行南京分行中级经济师，经济学博士，研究方向：财政金融政策；骆永民（1981-），男，安徽蚌埠人，南京财经大学财政与税务学院教授，经济学博士，研究方向：财政政策、农村经济与房地产经济。
  • 基金资助:
    国家统计局重点项目“房地产溢出效应对宏观经济的影响研究”，项目编号：2018LZ20。

Land Finance and Credit Expansion in Rise of House Price: Which One is More Important?

WANG Lu-jun1, XIE Shan2, LUO Yong-min1   

  1. (1. School of Public Finance and Taxation, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China; 2. Nanjing Branch, The People′s Bank of China, Nanjing 210004, China)
  • Received:2019-01-19 Online:2019-06-16

摘要： 我国各地的房价上涨与土地财政和信贷扩张有紧密联系。本文以2010-2016年的百城价格指数为研究对象，利用面板模型数据分析土地财政、信贷扩张以及两者的交互项对房价的影响，发现土地财政是房价上涨的主要根源，信贷规模扩张主要是通过土地财政而影响房价上涨的，信贷规模扩张越快，土地财政对房价上涨的影响效应越大。其中，土地财政对房价上涨的影响效应，一二线城市远大于三四线城市。各地应以财政领域的改革为突破口解决房价居高不下问题，降低各地方政府获取土地财政收入以及进行土地融资的动机；同时，降低信贷资金的乘数效应，严防信贷资金通过各种形式流入地方融资平台。

关键词: 城市房价上涨, 土地财政, 信贷扩张, 交互项, 工具变量

Abstract: The rise of house price in China′s real estate market is closely related to land finance and credit expansion. This paper takes China Residential House Price Index in 100 Cities(HPI-100) as the research object and uses the panel data model from 2010 to 2016 to analyze the impact of land finance, credit expansion and their interaction terms on house price. The study finds that land finance is the root cause of the rise of house price in China,and the expansion of credit scale mainly affects the rise of housing prices through land finance: the faster the expansion of credit scale, the greater the impact of land finance on the rise of housing prices.Among them, the impact of land finance on the rise of housing prices is far greater in the first-and second-tier cities than in the third-and fourth-tier cities. Local governments should take the reform in the financial field as a breakthrough to solve the problem of high housing prices, and reduce the motivation of local governments to obtain land revenue and land financing; at the same time, reduce the multiplier effect of credit funds, and strictly prevent credit funds from flowing into local financing platforms through various forms.

Key words: urban housing price rise, land finance, credit expansion, interactive items, instrumental variables