商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

财政分权与地区服务业增长的门槛效应分析 ——基于地方政府政绩观的逻辑分析

郝宏杰1,2，付文林1   

  1. (1.上海财经大学 公共经济与管理学院，上海 200433； 2.郑州轻工业大学 社会发展研究中心，郑州 450001）
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-03 出版日期:2019-12-24
  • 作者简介:郝宏杰（1980-），男，河南林州人，上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院博士研究生，郑州轻工业大学社会发展研究中心研究员，研究方向：财税理论与政策、服务经济学；付文林（1969-），安徽宣城人，上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：财税理论与政策、宏观经济学。
  • 基金资助:
    ：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目，项目编号：16ZDA065；国家自然科学基金项目，项目编号：71373150；上海财经大学研究生创新基金项目，项目编号：CXJJ-2014-414。

An Analysis of the Threshold Effect of Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Service Industry Growth:Logical Analysis based on Local Government Achievements

HAO Hong-jie1,2,FU Wen-lin1   

  1. (1.School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433, China;2.Social Development Research Center of Zhengzhou University of Light Industry, Zhengzhou 450001,China)
  • Received:2019-09-03 Online:2019-12-24

摘要： 中国经济增长的驱动因素中，政策性因素更明显。针对我国服务业增长的阶段性、地区异质性特征带来的总量滞后问题，本文从理论上分析财政分权影响地区服务业增长的内在作用机理，并利用1980-2016年30省份的面板数据考察财政分权对服务业增长的影响。理论分析表明，中国特色财政分权体制直接影响地方政府的政绩观，因而在产业发展政策支持上，在不同的经济发展水平的地区和阶段，会区别性选择更有利于体现经济增长政绩考核的产业，影响服务业增长地区的差异性和阶段性。实证分析结果显示，财政分权对服务业增长具有重要影响,并呈现非线性特征;进一步利用面板门槛模型的实证分析发现地区经济发展对财政分权的服务业增长效应存在双重门槛，在低收入阶段，财政分权加强会阻碍服务业增长，在中等收入阶段，财政分权对服务业增长的阻碍作用明显弱化，在高收入阶段，财政分权显著促进服务业增长。本文解释了长期以来我国服务业发展滞后问题及个别地区服务业快速增长的现象，同时认为，随着我国大部分地区经济发展水平接近或超过高收入门槛，扩大财政分权有利于服务业快速增长，因此，要进一步完善财政分权制度，改进地方官员考核机制，提升经济发展质量。

关键词: 财政分权, 地方政府政绩观, 服务业增长, 门槛面板回归

Abstract: Abstract：Among the driving factors of China′s economic growth, the policy factor is more obvious. In view of the problem of total lag caused by the stage and regional heterogeneity of the growth of service industry in China, this paper theoretically analyzes the internal mechanism of fiscal decentralization affecting the growth of regional service industry, and uses panel data of 30 provinces from 1980 to 2016 to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on the growth of service industry.Theoretical analysis shows that the fiscal decentralization system with Chinese characteristics has a direct impact on the local government achievements. Therefore, in terms of industrial development policy support, in different regions and stages of economic development level, it will choose industries that are more conducive to reflecting the economic growth performance appraisal, and affect the differences and stages of service industry growth regions.The results of empirical analysis show that fiscal decentralization has an important impact on the growth of service industry, and presents nonlinear characteristics; further empirical analysis of panel threshold model shows that there are double thresholds for the growth effect of regional economic development on the fiscal decentralization of service industry;in the low-income stage, the strengthening of fiscal decentralization will hinder the growth of service industry, in the middle-income stage, the fiscal decentralization will affect the service industry and in the high-income stage, fiscal decentralization significantly will promote the growth of service industry. This paper explains the lagging development of China′s service industry and the rapid growth of service industry in some regions for a long time. At the same time, it holds that with the economic development level of most regions approaching or exceeding the high-income threshold, we should expand the rapid growth of the financial decentralization service industry. Therefore, we should further improve the financial decentralization system, improve the assessment mechanism of local officials, and improve the quality of economic development.

Key words: fiscal decentralization;local government achievements, services growth, Threshold Panel Regression