商业研究

商业研究

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中国人口结构特征与经济效率、经济转型 ——基于1992-2017年中国分地区面板数据的分析

王钰1，张自然2   

  1. （1.首都经济贸易大学 经济学院，北京 100070； 2.中国社会科学院 经济研究所，北京 100836）
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-18 出版日期:2019-12-24
  • 作者简介:王钰（1973-），女，山东文登人，首都经济贸易大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：经济发展与经济结构；张自然（1972-），本文通讯作者，男，湖北麻城人，中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员，经济学博士，研究方向：城市化、技术进步与经济增长。
  • 基金资助:
    国家哲学社会科学一般项目“对中国不同发展阶段减排目标的碳排放权分配机制研究”, 项目编号：14BJL101。

The Characteristics of China′s Population Structure and Economic Efficiency, Economic Transformation：An Analysis based on Panel Data of China′s Regions from 1992 to 2017

WANG Yu1，ZHANG Zi-ran2   

  1. (1. School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing100070,China; 2. Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100836,China)
  • Received:2019-09-18 Online:2019-12-24

摘要： 与发达国家不同，中国在中等收入阶段人口结构就出现了“老龄少子化”特征。依据1992-2017年中国分地区的面板数据，本文运用扩展的MRW模型分析中国“老龄化”和“少子化”双重叠加对经济效率的影响，结果表明“老龄少子化”对中国经济效率的综合影响为负，“老龄少子化”的人口结构对于中国实现经济发展方式转型和经济增长动力转换有不利影响，不利于中国在人均GDP水平上由物质资本驱动向人力资本驱动转变的接续，促使中国经济过早出现了供给侧的结构性减速。促进中国经济顺利转型的逻辑应是先提高收入水平，再转换驱动要素；在转型的过渡期内维持原有的经济增长动力，保障人均收入水平进入高收入国家行列；要适度进行物质资本积累、鼓励生育和提高人均人力资本积累水平，提高人均人力资本存量，并使其不断加速，以实现两种动力的平稳过渡和交接。

关键词: 人口转变, 老龄少子化, 经济效率, 经济转型

Abstract: Different from developed countries, China′s population structure in the middle-income stage is characterized by “aging and fewer children”.Based on the panel data of China′s regions from 1992 to 2017, this paper uses the extended MRW model to analyze the impact of the double superposition of “aging” and “fewer children” on economic efficiency.The results show that the comprehensive influence of “aging and fewer children” on China′s economic efficiency is negative, and the population structure of “aging and fewer children” has a negative impact on China′s transformation of economic development mode and economic growth power, which is not conducive to the continuation of China′s transformation from material capital driven to human capital driven in per capita GDP level, and promotes the premature emergence of supply side structure deceleration in China′s economy. The logic to promote the smooth transformation of China′s economy should be to first improve the income level, then transform the driving factors; during the transitional period, maintain the original economic growth momentum, ensure the per capita income level to enter the ranks of high-income countries; moderately carry out the accumulation of material capital, encourage childbearing and improve the per capita human capital accumulation level, improve the per capita human capital stock, and make it continuously increase speed, so as to realize the smooth transition and handover of two kinds of power.

Key words: Key words：demographic transition;aging and few children, economic efficiency, economic restructuring