商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

人民币“货币锚”地位及其影响因素探究 ——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析

赵慧，张浓   

  1. （广西大学 国际学院，南宁 530004）
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-13 出版日期:2020-05-12
  • 作者简介:赵慧（1987-），女，南宁人，广西大学国际学院副研究员，金融学博士，研究方向：国际金融、中国-东盟区域发展；张浓（1994-），本文通讯作者，女，湖南怀化人，广西大学国际学院研究生,研究方向: 国际金融。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于计价职能视角的人民币国际化推进路径规划研究”，项目编号：19CJL048；广西大学博士启动项目“金融发展与公司融资结构的双向互动—基于上市公司的研究”，项目编号：XBS1902。

A Study of the Status of “Currency Anchor” of RMB and Its Influence Factors: An Empirical Analysis based on the Countries along “The Belt and Road”

ZHAO Hui，ZHANG Nong   

  1. (International College，Guangxi University, Nanning 530004,China)
  • Received:2019-12-13 Online:2020-05-12

摘要： 本文将Frankel和Wei(1994，2007)提出的经典“货币锚”模型扩展为时变参数状态空间模型，从影响范围与影响力层面对人民币在“一带一路”沿线区域“货币锚”的地位进行分析，并基于时变参数状态空间模型的结果测度影响人民币发挥“货币锚”作用的因素。研究结果表明：人民币在“一带一路”合作区域的“货币锚”地位显著提升，但存在明显的地区差异，在东南亚、南亚和独联体的影响较大，在西亚、中东欧和中亚地区的影响较弱；影响人民币发挥“货币锚”作用的因素主要包括政治稳定性差异、贸易网络外部性、实际GDP和所在国的通货膨胀史，其中贸易网络外部性对人民币“货币锚”地位有显著的促进作用，经济规模的促进作用较小，而所在国的通货膨胀史抑制了人民币发挥“货币锚”的作用。我国应积极推进掌握大宗商品计价权、巩固与主要贸易伙伴的合作关系、推动汇率制度市场化改革，以此提升人民币“货币锚”地位，夯实人民币国际化基础。

关键词: 人民币国际化, 货币锚, “一带一路”, 影响因素

Abstract: This paper extends the classical “currency anchor” model proposed by Frankel and Wei(1994,2007) to the time-varying parameter state space model, analyzes the position of the “currency anchor” in the areas along“The Belt and Road” from influence scope and influence level, and measures the factors that affect RMB′s “monetary anchor” function based on the results of the time-varying parameter state space model.The results show that the “monetary anchor” position of the RMB has been significantly improved in“The Belt and Road”and the other countries, but there are obvious regional differences:the impact in the “Southeast Asian”, “South Asian” and “Commonwealth” is relatively large, and the impact is relatively weak in Western Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia；the factors that influence the role of RMB as a “currency anchor” mainly include differences in political stability, externalities of trade networks, real GDP and the inflation history of host country,among them, the externality of trade network has a significant role in promoting RMB′s “currency anchor”, the role of economic scale is relatively small, while the inflation history of host country has restrained RMB′s role as a “currency anchor”.China should actively promote the control of commodity pricing rights, consolidate the cooperation with major trading partners, and promote the market-oriented reform of exchange rate system, so as to enhance the position of RMB as a “currency anchor” and consolidate the foundation of RMB internationalization.

Key words: internationalization of RMB, currency anchor, “The Belt and Road”, influence factors