商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

养老服务产业与区域经济发展的耦合协调分析

李元1,2，尹典1，王晓璐3   

  1. （1.长春工业大学 公共管理学院，长春 130012；2.吉林大学 哲学与社会学院，长春 130012;3.吉林大学 东北亚研究院，长春 130012)
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-08 出版日期:2020-07-20
  • 作者简介:李元（1986-），女，内蒙古多伦人，长春工业大学公共管理学院副教授，吉林大学哲学社会学院社会学博士后，经济学博士，研究方向：人口经济学、社会保障；尹典（1986-），本文通讯作者，女，长春人，长春工业大学公共管理学院讲师，研究生导师，经济学博士，研究方向：产业经济学、养老保障；王晓璐（1979-），女，长春人，吉林大学东北亚研究院《人口学刊》编辑部副编审，研究方向：人口学。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金青年项目，项目编号：16CRK018；吉林省教育厅“十三五”社会科学项目，项目编号：JJKH20191331SK。

An Analysis of Coupling and Coordination between Pension Service Industry and Regional Economic Development

LI Yuan1,2，YIN Dian1，WANG Xiao-lu3   

  1. (1. School of Public Administration，Changchun University of Technology，Changchun 130012，China； 2. Philosophy and Social College of Jilin University，Changchun 130012，China； 3. Center for Northeast Asian Studies，Jilin University，Changchun 130012，China)
  • Received:2020-06-08 Online:2020-07-20

摘要： 伴随着人口老龄化，养老服务产业的需求也在不断增加。养老产业的发展为区域经济提供了新的增长动力，区域经济的优化也为养老服务产业发展提供了基础保障，二者形成了相互影响、相互作用的耦合关系。基于中国31个省份38个指标的面板数据，借鉴耦合协调模型，评价我国区域经济和养老服务产业之间的耦合协调程度。总体来看，为适应人口老龄化趋势的中国养老服务产业发展还处于初级阶段，与区域经济发展水平不够协调；相对东部地区，中西部地区区域经济与养老服务产业之间的耦合协调程度较低；养老服务产业的发展不仅与区域经济发展水平正相关，也与社会发展水平正相关。养老服务产业可以为供给侧改革下区域经济结构调整提供产业空间，需要提供必要的产业发展指导与支持，以实现这两个子系统的动态协调与高质量发展。

关键词: 区域经济, 养老服务产业, 耦合协调度, 协调发展

Abstract: With the aging of the population, the demand of pension service industry is also increasing. The development of pension industry provides new growth impetus for regional economy, and the optimization of regional economy also provides basic guarantee for the development of pension service industry. The two forms a coupling relationship of mutual influence and interaction.Based on the panel data of 38 indicators of 31 provinces in China, the coupling coordination degree between regional economy and pension service industry in China is evaluated by using the coupling coordination model. In general, the development of China′s pension service industry is still in the primary stage to adapt to the trend of population aging, which is not coordinated with the regional economic development level; compared with the eastern region, the coupling and coordination degree between the regional economy and the pension service industry in the central and western regions is relatively low; the development of pension service industry is not only positively related to the level of regional economic development, but also positively related to the level of social development. The pension service industry can provide industrial space for the regional economic structure adjustment under the supply side reform. It needs to provide necessary industrial development guidance and support to realize the dynamic coordination and high-quality development of the two subsystems.

Key words: regional economy, pension service industry, coupling coordination, coordinated development