商业研究

商业研究

• 商经理论 • 上一篇    下一篇

农业生产性服务业对粮食生产的影响 ——基于2008-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

闫晗，乔均   

  1. (南京财经大学 粮食经济研究院，南京 210003)
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-01 出版日期:2020-08-20
  • 作者简介:闫晗（1991-），男，江苏徐州人，南京财经大学粮食经济研究院博士研究生，研究方向：应用经济学（粮食流通）；乔均（1962-），本文通讯作者，男，江苏徐州人，南京财经大学粮食经济研究院教授，研究方向：应用经济学（粮食流通）。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学青年基金项目，项目编号：71803077；国家自然科学基金面上项目，项目编号：71773046；江苏省社科基金项目，项目编号：19EYD009。

The Impact of Agricultural Productive Services on Grain Production: An Empirical Study based on China′s Provincial Panel Data from 2008 to 2017

YAN Han,QIAO Jun   

  1. (Institute of Food Economics,Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210003,China)
  • Received:2020-08-01 Online:2020-08-20

摘要： 农业生产性服务业是粮食生产的相关联行业，为拓展粮食生产发展和粮食产量提高的思路，本文聚焦农业生产性服务业对粮食生产的影响。首先，通过罗默内生增长理论对农业生产性服务业在知识技术方面对粮食生产的影响进行理论分析；同时，将资本作为农业生产性服务业与粮食生产的联系要素，对罗默内生增长理论的模型进行改造，对农业生产性服务业在资本方面对粮食生产的影响机理进行分析，并根据分析结果提出研究假说。然后，基于2008-2017年中国省级面板数据，通过建立面板模型，采用系统GMM法、差分GMM法和分位数回归法对研究假说进行计量验证。研究结论表明：农业生产性服务业的发展能够促进粮食生产水平的提高，农业服务业发展水平每提高1个百分点，粮食单产将提高0.7个百分点；不同农业生产性服务业细分行业的发展对促进粮食生产水平提高的影响度不同，其中影响最大的是农业物流，农业物流业发展水平每提高1个百分点，粮食单产将提高1.1个百分点。因此，（1）农业生产性服务业的发展应以粮食的发展为信号接入点，以粮农需求为导向。（2）当前农业物流业对粮食生产影响最大，应成为农业生产性服务发展战略的重点。（3）农业生产性服务业发展中需要注重区域协调和政策协调。

关键词: 农业生产性服务, 粮食生产, 罗默内生增长理论, GMM

Abstract: Agricultural productive services is the related industry of grain production. In order to expand the ideas of food production development and grain yield improvement, this paper focuses on the impact of agricultural productive services on grain production.Firstly, this paper analyzes the impact of agricultural productive services on food production in terms of knowledge and technology through Romer′s endogenous growth theory;at the same time, capital is regarded as the link element between agricultural productive services and food production, the model of Romer′s endogenous growth theory is reformed, and the mechanism of agricultural productive services′ influence on food production in terms of capital is analyzed, and the research hypothesis is put forward according to the analysis results.Then, based on China′s provincial panel data from 2008 to 2017, through the establishment of a panel model, the System GMM method, differential GMM method and quantile regression method are used to test the research hypothesis.The results show that: the development of agricultural productive services can promote the improvement of grain production level:the grain yield per unit area will increase by 0.7 percentage points when the development level of agricultural servicesincreases by 1 percentage point; the impact of the development of different agricultural productive services on the improvement of grain production level is different, among which agricultural logistics has the greatest impact:every 1% increase in the development level of agricultural logistics industry will increase the grain yield by 1.1%.Therefore, (1) The development of agricultural productive services should take the development of food as the signal access point, and take the demand of farmers as the guidance. (2) At present, the agricultural logistics has the greatest impact on grain production, and should become the focus of the development strategy of agricultural productive services. (3) Regional coordination and policy coordination should be paid attention to in the development of agricultural productive services.

Key words: agricultural productive services, food production, Romer′s endogenous growth theory;GMM