注释:
①本文根据CHFS选择居民对未来经济、利率的预期情况来度量居民的乐观预期。问卷中,“您预期中国未来三到五年的经济形势与现在比较会如何变化?”答案选项有:非常好、较好、几乎不变、较差和非常差,依次赋值为5、4、3、2和1,该变量定义为Expectation of economic;“未来一年,您预期利率会如何变量”答案选项有:上升很多、上升一点、几乎不变、降低一点和降低很多,依次赋值为1、2、3、4和5,该变量定义为Expectation of interest。
②本文根据沈坤荣和谢勇对不确定性的度量方法[13],本文选择居民参加养老、医疗和失业等主要社会保险对不确定性进行测度,这是因为当人们遇到不确定性事件时,社会保险可以在很大程度上帮助他们保持收入水平的稳定,降低支出的不确定性,因此选择居民的社会保险作为不确定性的指标,只要有参与养老、医疗和失业保险的,赋值为1,否则为0,变量定义为Retirement。
③为了考虑遗赠储蓄动机因素对于家庭投资决策的影响,本文选用CHFS中关于定期存款目的的问题:“您家定期存款的主要目的是什么?(可多选)”;答案选项有:有利息、资产的安全性、购买/建造/装修住房、购买汽车、购买家具家电等耐用品、为农业/工商业准备资金、金融投资、教育/培训、偿还债务、为养老做准备、旅游或度假、留给子女、婚丧嫁娶、看病、无其他投资渠道、其他(请注明)。本文定义的户主遗赠储蓄动机为虚拟变量,即当户主的选项中有“留给子女”的,赋值为1,否则为0,变量定义为Bequest。
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