Abstract: Using the trade data of China′s agricultural produces exports to the Brazilian market from 2001 to 2016, this paper analyzes their current trade situation, uses the binary marginal analysis method to decompose the export growth of Chinese agricultural produces, and uses vector autoregressive model to explore the important factors affecting the binary margin. The results show that the growth of China′s agricultural produces exports to Brazil is dominated by the intensive margin, and the contribution rate of the expansion margin is not high; Brazil′s agricultural added value has a negative effect on the marginal and intensive margins, China′s export price index show positive effects on both them, while Brazil′s agricultural labor productivity has an inconsistent direction for both them. Therefore, further enriching China′s agricultural produces exports to Brazil and increasing the added value of agricultural produces are the main objectives of promoting agricultural trade development between China and Brazil.

Key words: agricultural produces, China and Brazil, expansion margin, intensive margin